Swedish Development Minister's Op-Ed in Radikal Newspaper

Swedish Minister for International Development Cooperation - and Gunilla has an op-ed in yesterday's Radikal. The article coincides with her current two-day visit to Turkey, the purpose of which is described as:

for discussions on how Turkey, as an influential regional actor and aid donor, can cooperate and exchange experience with Sweden. The talks will also focus on Sweden's support to Turkey's EU membership negotiations.

She is also there to attend a UNDP conference and is meeting with Egemen Bağış and Ali Babacan, Minister for EU Affairs/chief negotiator and Deputy Prime Minister respectively.

The op-ed in Radikal (which, btw is in Turkish! - I suspect someone helped her with the translation...) emphasizes Sweden's support for Turkey's EU candidacy and Turkey's strong ties to the EU. 

Toulouse killings: Death in the morning | The Economist

Three young Jewish school children and one adult have been shot dead at a religious school in Toulouse.

This is when my analytical brain runs the risk of short-circuiting. I just fail to comprehend deliberate and brutal violence directed against children.

In the case of Staff Sgt. Robert Bales - the US soldier who went berserk in Afghanistan two weeks ago and murdered nine children and seven adults in their homes - the horrific acts appears to have been the result of mental instability. In a way, this makes is easier to comprehend, albeit no less abhorrent of course. But if such violence is perpetrated for political reasons?

True, the many inaccurate speculations in the immediate aftermath of Anders Breivik's terrorist attacks in Norway should caution us against loose guessing about perpetrators and objectives. Hopefully, the murderer will be caught and we will know the reason in time. So let us not point in any particular direction.

But what if the Economist is correct in speculating that there was a political motive behind this attack? As a student of ethnic conflict, I am aware of the affective power of ethnic, nationalist, religious or other kinds of identity, and the rage felt by those marginalized and oppressed as well as victims of perceived and/or real injustice. But no matter what crimes you may have been subjected to, the children of your enemies are never guilty!

Anyway, I should be preparing tomorrow's lecture but I felt the need to respond to this somehow.

Toulouse killings: Death in the morning | The Economist

The Deep State | The New Yorker

The New Yorker adds its voice to the growing number of Western observers who are concerned about developments in Turkey:

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was elected in 2003, despite having been banned from holding office, and since then he has taken an increasingly harsh line against his opponents. In the past five years, more than seven hundred people have been arrested. 

Letter from Turkey: The Deep State | The New Yorker

Swedish Bank SEB Bullish on Turkey

I just got a newsletter from my bank - the large Swedish bank SEB - which contained an extremely bullish article on Turkey. The title of the piece (in translation) is indicative: "Turkey: Soon among the 12 largest."

Their analyst, Mats Olausson, believes that "Turkey is probably the country in Europe with the highest growth potential in the coming decade."The piece emphasizes high growth, political stability, inflation under control (down to single digits from previous 70% rates), a well-managed and attractive financial sector.

For those of you who read Swedish, here is a link to the original piece. I think that it should be accessible also to people who are not SEB clients but let me know if the link doesn't work.

French Court strikes down Armenian genocide denial law

Today's New York Times reports:

The French Constitutional Council on Tuesday struck down a draft law that would have criminalized the denial of an Armenian genocide by the Ottoman Turks, legislation that has soured relations between France and Turkey.

Sarkozy has vowed to continue to pursue the issue, however, so it is not dead yet. And whatever political gains he was hoping for in view of the upcoming presidential elections, he has won them despite the Council's vote.

My position on the issue is quite simply that it is a matter for serious historians. Neither Turkey nor France ought to attempt to determine the factual status or correct interpretation of the tragic events at the bottom of the controversy by means of legislation.

Slick EU video supporting enlargement

The European Commission has prepared a one-minute video that clearly aims at enhancing public attitudes toward South-Eastern Europe, including Turkey. In the very well-produced video, we are faced with images of modern, historic, and serene landscapes and cities that may well be taken from EU capitals and countries. Upon them are superimposed questions, like: "Sweden?" and correct answers: "Montenegro".

Over images of a bustling city with skyskrapers, the text asks "Germany?" and answers "Turkey." With respect to the latter, I don't think this is anywhere near enough to turn public opinion around while national political leaders in many capitals play politics with the question of Turkish membership, but I liked the video. High production value, and nice ending slogan: "So similar. So different." Isn't that what the EU is about? Unity in diversity?

Tribute to Anthony Shadid of the NYT

I was saddened to read this morning that NYT reporter Anthony Shadid died last Thursday. Apparently, he suffered a severe asthma attack while having sneaked into Syria to report on the violence there. Shadid had seen his share of danger while reporting in the Middle East, having been shot in Palestine and held hostage in Libya. Unfortunately, this time, the danger proved fatal.

In tribute to Shadid's excellent reporting on the region, and not the least on Turkey-Syrian relations, I am linking to an earlier post that discusses a piece he wrote about Erdogan (bottom of page). The Times also has a collection of recollections and posthumous praise of Shadid.

One of my favorite pieces by Shadid is this story about the significance of the Ottoman loyalties transcending national boundaries in the Levant and Asia Minor. In it, Shadid beautifully uses the personal and 'small' world to illustrate grand historical themes of political significance.

http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2011/06/recep-tayyip-erdogan-transcends-complex.html

Turkey's EU Dreams Hit New Snag - Energy Production | Oilprice.com

A good piece on the role of energy - oil in particular - as it plays out in the Turkey-EU relationship on Oilprice.com. Below is an excerpt but read the whole piece as well.

So, the question arises, in the decades-long convoluted accession tango between the EU and Turkey, what will happen and who needs the other more? A decade ago the answer seemed more straightforward, but with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasting that Turkey will be the OECD’s fastest growing economy up to 2017, with a 6.7 percent average annual growth rate, Brussels, as it grapples with Greece’s incipient default, might take a new look at both Turkey’s importance to EU energy imports as well as its membership aspirations.

And, as for Turkey, its economic growth remains nobbled by the high cost of energy imports. According to Turkey’s Economy Ministry and TurkStat, Turkey's statistics authority of Turkey’s 2011 $240.8 billion in imports, energy cost $54.1 billion and for each $10 per barrel oil prices rise, Turkey shells out an additional $4 billion.

It’s good to have friends.

Addressing Turkey’s concerns for the energy well-being of its friends Yildiz said of the Istanbul discussions, "Turkey did everything it had to do. The fact that (Azeri Caspian offshore natural gas) Shah Deniz 2 project was signed implies opening up a path to carry natural gas to EU member countries. Up until now, Turkey has assumed a positive mode and will continue its positive approach. We want our meeting to generate a solid result. Turkey, by utilizing its advantages stemming from its geography, continues its works in practice related to the supply of natural gas and electricity to the EU members” before concluding that “energy is a human right. We do not foresee the opening up of the energy chapter to negotiations as a precondition as we meet EU's energy needs.”

Time for some reciprocity.

By. John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com

Turkey's EU Dreams Hit New Snag - Energy Production

The Greek debacle | TheEUObserver.com

Off-topic post but I have to link to a blog entry at The EU Observer on the unsustainability of the Troika's bitter medicine for Greece.

Here is what the Troika is demanding of Greece for 2012 alone (except for one of the demands, which is to be met by 2015):

• a 22 per cent cut in the monthly minimum wage to €586;
• layoffs for 15,000 of civil servants;
• an end to dozens of job guarantee provisions;
• a 20 per cent cut in its government work force by 2015;
• spending cuts of more than €3 billion;
• further cuts to retiree pension benefits.

Does that sound feasible to you in light of the fact that Athens is already partly in flames? It sure does sound like a great recipe for deepening the recession though... Follow the link below for the short blog post:

The Greek debacle « Political Economy 101

Special prosecutor summons head of Turkey's intelligence agency!

This is such a complicated story that I won't even begin to pretend that I know exactly which way is up and which is down. But the special prosecutor in the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations has now called the head of the MIT - the Turkish intelligence agency - as part of an investigation into alleged collusion between MIT and the Kurdish guerilla/terrorist organization, the PKK.

MIT operatives have infiltrated the PKK and allegedly helped set up the alleged urban and political wing of the PKK, the so-called KCK. Top MIT officials have also been involved in the peace talks with PKK leaders. It is alleged that the MIT infiltrators failed to stop terrorist attacks and even contributed to some of them. At the same time, the opposition has been accusing the AKP for trying to secretly arrange a peace deal with the PKK. Recordings of talks in Oslo were recently leaked online.

But perhaps an even more interesting dimension to this is that the MIT head, Hakan Fidan, and the special prosecutor are arguably both part of the AKP/moderate islamist camp. And Fidan is Erdoğan's personal appointee, so this could be interpreted as infighting between Turkey's "two states" as the newspaper Taraf put it in a headline.

The AKP with Erdoğan at its helm have garnered so much electoral success and has expanded so rapidly that we are likely seeing the consequences: increased infighting and growing factionalism. Rumor has it that President Abdullah Gül, for example, is not thrilled about Erdoğan's grand plans about creating a Presidential system with himself at the top, which in a unitary and highly centralized state would give tremendous authority to the President. One way of interpreting the move by the special prosecutor is that there may be other forces as well, who are unhappy with the current Prime Minister's plans.

No matter what, the plot thickens.

Sources for further reading:

Here's a good overview from Reuters:

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/turkish-pm-erdogans-security-service-in-spotlight

The AKP-friendly (although with the eruption of factionalism, this may be too blunt a label...) Zaman has the following report:

MİT executives face serious accusations, trial process uncertain

The pro-opposition, anti-AKP newspaper Hurriyet:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-in-shock-over-probe-on-intel-chiefs.aspx?pageID=238&nID=13359&NewsCatID=338