The Greek debacle | TheEUObserver.com

Off-topic post but I have to link to a blog entry at The EU Observer on the unsustainability of the Troika's bitter medicine for Greece.

Here is what the Troika is demanding of Greece for 2012 alone (except for one of the demands, which is to be met by 2015):

• a 22 per cent cut in the monthly minimum wage to €586;
• layoffs for 15,000 of civil servants;
• an end to dozens of job guarantee provisions;
• a 20 per cent cut in its government work force by 2015;
• spending cuts of more than €3 billion;
• further cuts to retiree pension benefits.

Does that sound feasible to you in light of the fact that Athens is already partly in flames? It sure does sound like a great recipe for deepening the recession though... Follow the link below for the short blog post:

The Greek debacle « Political Economy 101

Special prosecutor summons head of Turkey's intelligence agency!

This is such a complicated story that I won't even begin to pretend that I know exactly which way is up and which is down. But the special prosecutor in the Ergenekon and Sledgehammer investigations has now called the head of the MIT - the Turkish intelligence agency - as part of an investigation into alleged collusion between MIT and the Kurdish guerilla/terrorist organization, the PKK.

MIT operatives have infiltrated the PKK and allegedly helped set up the alleged urban and political wing of the PKK, the so-called KCK. Top MIT officials have also been involved in the peace talks with PKK leaders. It is alleged that the MIT infiltrators failed to stop terrorist attacks and even contributed to some of them. At the same time, the opposition has been accusing the AKP for trying to secretly arrange a peace deal with the PKK. Recordings of talks in Oslo were recently leaked online.

But perhaps an even more interesting dimension to this is that the MIT head, Hakan Fidan, and the special prosecutor are arguably both part of the AKP/moderate islamist camp. And Fidan is Erdoğan's personal appointee, so this could be interpreted as infighting between Turkey's "two states" as the newspaper Taraf put it in a headline.

The AKP with Erdoğan at its helm have garnered so much electoral success and has expanded so rapidly that we are likely seeing the consequences: increased infighting and growing factionalism. Rumor has it that President Abdullah Gül, for example, is not thrilled about Erdoğan's grand plans about creating a Presidential system with himself at the top, which in a unitary and highly centralized state would give tremendous authority to the President. One way of interpreting the move by the special prosecutor is that there may be other forces as well, who are unhappy with the current Prime Minister's plans.

No matter what, the plot thickens.

Sources for further reading:

Here's a good overview from Reuters:

http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/turkish-pm-erdogans-security-service-in-spotlight

The AKP-friendly (although with the eruption of factionalism, this may be too blunt a label...) Zaman has the following report:

MİT executives face serious accusations, trial process uncertain

The pro-opposition, anti-AKP newspaper Hurriyet:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ankara-in-shock-over-probe-on-intel-chiefs.aspx?pageID=238&nID=13359&NewsCatID=338

Greece Stepping up Security on Border With Turkey | ABC News

Greek Public Order Minister Christos Papoutsis announced that construction of the planned fence along the Greek-Turkish border will begin soon, and is expected to be completed in September.

Papoutsis said the fence will be coupled with a network of fixed night-vision cameras providing real-time footage to the new command center. 

Most of Greece's 125-mile (200 kilometer) border with Turkey runs along a river known as Evros in Greece and Meric in Turkey. The new fence, which Turkey's government has not opposed, will block a short stretch of dry land between the two countries.

So new walls are being erected in Europe. In one way, though, it is hard to blame Greece for this. Like Malta, the country is stuck with a lion share of refugees trying to enter the EU and its system for processing applications for asylum is vastly overloaded. Given the Union's policy of returning refugees to the country of entry (the first EU country they arrived in), the countries constituting the EU's outer borders are forced to these kinds of rather desperate measures.

Picture courtesy of Daily Mail and AP.

(Go here to see the picture on the Mail Online.)

As one of my second-semester students just pointed out in an excellent survey of the research on the EU's migration policies, this is a question of fairness on several dimensions. One dimension is the question of a fair division of labor between the EU member states, and here countries like Greece and Malta are getting the short end of the stick. The other dimension is of course the unfair treatment of the refugees that are stuck in terrible conditions in these countries.

Ultimately, of course, a fence won't do the trick. We are stuck with the inherent unfairness of a system in which the European economies and their baby-boomer generation retirees depend on cheap migrant labor, and yet treat the prospective workers less than humanely as they are trying to make their way here. One wishes we could do better.

Greece Stepping up Security on Border With Turkey - ABC News

French Court to Rule on Armenian Genocide Legislation - NYTimes.com

From today's New York Times, an Armenian-American voice in support of the recent French decision, and news that the country's supreme authority on the constitution will review the constitutionality of the decision:

PARIS — France’s Constitutional Council said Tuesday that it would rule on the constitutionality of criminalizing the denial of a genocide of Armenians during World War I, after receiving appeals signed by dozens of lawmakers from across the political spectrum.

French Court to Rule on Armenian Genocide Legislation - NYTimes.com

The Perils of Playing Politics With History | NYTimes.com

From the New York Times today:

By criminalizing the denial of genocide in Armenia, France followed the examples of Switzerland and Slovenia and helped sharpen a parallel debate in Israel. But in alienating Turkey — an increasingly sharp-elbowed NATO ally and regional player — the French authorities seemed to place political considerations at home ahead of perils abroad, risking criticism of their own cherished identity as a bastion of liberté.

“This bill, if implemented, would have a chilling effect on public debate and contravene France’s international obligation to uphold freedom of expression,” said Nicola Duckworth of Amnesty International.

The Perils of Playing Politics With History - NYTimes.com

Massive demonstrations in Istanbul

I'm a couple of days behind, but there were massive demonstrations in Istanbul to protest the verdicts in the Hrant Dink case. Dink was an Armenian-Turkish publicist who was shot dead in 2007. Three of the 19 charged with being involved were recently found guilty (the shooter got 22 years behind bars), but all charged were acquitted of being part of a larger conspiracy and the court found no evidence of state negligence.

Protesters carried signs that said "Hepimiz Hrant'ız" and "Hepimiz Ermeniyiz!" ("We're all Hrant" and "We're all Armenian!")

Amnesty International issued a highly critical comment on the verdict and many Turks were spurred to protest as well.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16632890

S&P On Europe - NYTimes.com

Paul Krugman comments on the reason for S&P's downgrade of Eurozone countries and, more worryingly, the EU's response:

S&P’s downgrade of a bunch of European sovereigns was no surprise. What was somewhat surprising — and which went unmentioned in almost all the news stories I’ve read — was why S&P has gotten so pessimistic. From their FAQs:

We also believe that the agreement [the latest euro rescue plan] is predicated on only a partial recognition of the source of the crisis: that the current financial turmoil stems primarily from fiscal profligacy at the periphery of the eurozone. In our view, however, the financial problems facing the eurozone are as much a consequence of rising external imbalances and divergences in competitiveness between the EMU’s core and the so-called “periphery”. As such, we believe that a reform process based on a pillar of fiscal austerity alone risks becoming self-defeating, as domestic demand falls in line with consumers’ rising concerns about job security and disposable incomes, eroding national tax revenues.

And today we read about the response:

German chancellor Angela Merkel has called on eurozone governments speedily to implement tough new fiscal rules after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit ratings of France and Austria and seven other second-tier sovereigns.
Still barreling down the road to nowhere.

For some reason, I just keep thinking of a scene from Nemo, the Disney film (yes, I have little kids), in which the two little fish Dora and Marlin swim straight down into the dark abyss, into the arms of a monster.

All the while, they hum "just keep swimming, just keep swimming!"...

S&P On Europe - NYTimes.com

Turkish journalists denounce trials | EurActiv

From EurActiv:

Turkey is currently holding nearly 100 members of the news media in jail, one of the highest numbers worldwide, in a crackdown that critics and human rights groups say blights the country's image as a role model for democracy in the Middle East.

Prominent Turkish journalists on trial for alleged links to an underground anti-government network called the conspiracy charges against them "political" in a case that has raised concerns over media freedom in Turkey.

Nedim Şener and Ahmet Şık, investigative journalists arrested in March and held since then in a top-security prison outside Istanbul, were among 14 defendants in court to open their defence on Thursday (5 January).

Turkey is currently holding nearly 100 members of the news media in jail, one of the highest numbers worldwide, in a crackdown that critics and human rights groups say blights the country's image as a role model for democracy in the Middle East.

Turkish journalists denounce trials | EurActiv

European Parliament's Opinion on Turkey Progress Report

Follow this link to get to an online version of the European Parliament's (EP) recently enacted resolution on the Commission's 2011 Progress Report on Turkey. (I can't find it on the Parliament's own pages.)

It contains important and appropriate criticism, of which I have excerpted some of the most significant portions below. The problem, of course, is that due to the EU's past and current treatment of Turkey, the Progress Reports and the EP's opinions receive less and less attention in Turkey. So at a time when penetrating criticism is arguably needed urgently, the EU's "normative power" over Turkey is weaker than in decades. In the words of the prominent columnist Mehmet Ali Birand:

relations have dropped to their lowest level. Turkey is not on Europe’s agenda anymore. Europe is not on Turkey’s agenda either.

It has gone back to such an extent that for the first time in 47 years, the influence of the EU over Turkish politics has reached almost zero. In the past, voices, critics and warnings coming from Europe would be taken into utmost consideration; moreover, domestic politics would be adjusted to the EU’s conditions and rules.

Today, Ankara does not pay attention to either the Council of Europe or the European Parliament.

The reports used to be the top story in Turkish news for weeks, now they are mentioned and dropped. And this particular silence is not a result of phone calls from the Prime Minister.

For what it is worth, then, here are some key resolutions in the opinion:

9. Reiterates its concern that judicial procedural norms have not yet been improved sufficiently to ensure the right to a fair and timely trial, including the right to access incriminating evidence in the early phases of the proceedings and sufficient guarantees for all suspects; expresses great concern at the duration of pre-trial detention, with the latter becoming de-facto punishment without a trial; urges the TGNA to reform legislation on pre-trial detention bringing maximum pre-trial detention periods in Turkey in line with average pre-trial detention periods in the European Union;

10. Stresses that investigations of alleged coup plans, such as the ‘Ergenekon’ and ‘Sledgehammer’ cases, must demonstrate the strength and the proper, independent, impartial and transparent functioning of Turkish democratic institutions and the judiciary and their firm, unconditional commitment to the respect of fundamental rights;

11. Reiterates its concern on the practice of bringing criminal prosecutions against journalists who communicate evidence of human rights violations or raise other issues in the public interest as a contribution to the debate of a pluralistic society; considers the criminalisation of opinions as a key obstacle to the protection of human rights in Turkey and deplores disproportionate restriction of the freedoms of expression, association and assembly;

12. Urges Turkey to comply rigorously with its international human rights obligations in this respect by amending its relevant legislation and by training its police and judiciary; welcomes in this regard the decision to provide judges and prosecutors with in-service training on freedom of expression and freedom of the press and on the fundamental role of the European Court of Human Rights;

13. Recalls that freedom of expression and media pluralism are at the heart of European values and that a truly democratic, free and pluralistic society requires true freedom of expression; underlines that reform of legislation allowing for disproportionately high fines on the media – leading in some cases to their closure or to self-censorship by journalists or their editors – and of law 5651/2007 on the internet, which limits freedom of expression, restricts citizens’ right to access to information and allows websites bans of disproportionate scope and duration, is very urgent;

Avrupa Parlamentosu 2011 Türkiye Raporu Taslak Metni | CHP Bruksel – Avrupa Birliği Haberleri Bülteni Dağıtım Sistemi

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