"My friends don't worry about the current-account deficit, there is nothing to worry about," Mr. Erdoğan said, speaking to reporters in Ankara after unveiling his new cabinet. He added that the funding gap, currently 8.6% of gross domestic product, would diminish in the final quarter of the year as central bank measures slowed domestic demand.The market reaction was less sanguine. Turkey's currency slid 0.5% lower against the U.S. dollar, extending losses of close to 13% since November. Investors have been hoping for clear signs that Mr. Erdoğan's third-term government would outline a detailed strategy to tackle the ballooning current-account deficit, a stand-out weakness in an economy that expanded 11% in the first quarter, outstripping China.
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Erdoğan: It's not hot in here! | WSJ.com
Erdoğan responds to concerns about Turkey's current account deficit. The Wall Street Journal reports:
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Some like it hot | The Economist
"A widening current-account deficit can be a classic sign of overheating, as domestic demand outpaces supply. Turkey looks particularly worrying, with its deficit expected to jump to 8% of GDP this year, up from 2% in 2009. ...
Adding up the six scores reveals seven hotspots where most of the indicators are flashing red: Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam."
Economics focus: Some like it hot | The Economist
Monday, July 4, 2011
Turkey's opposition boycotts parliament | EurActiv
I'm busy grading papers (belatedly) so I will just post this link to a EurActiv article on the turbulent opening of the Turkish parliament on June 28. The two opposition parties in the Grand National Assembly (GNA) - the CHP and the BDP (which only has MPs who ran as independents) boycotted the opening due to some of their candidates having been barred.
From EurActiv's article:
"We will not take the oath unless the way is open for all our deputies to take the oath," CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu said, after a court rejected an appeal for the release of two of the party's candidates who were under detention without having been convicted.
The BDP announced its decision last week after the Election Commission ruled a candidate must forfeit his seat because of a conviction for spreading "terrorist propaganda" and awarded the seat to a runner-up from AK.
AK, a socially conservative party with Islamist roots, took 326 seats. But the disqualification of opponents is potentially enough to take AK past the 330-seat mark, which would give Erdoğan a larger majority to call a referendum for a planned new constitution without the support of other parties.
The BDP bloc stands to lose another five seats after courts ruled against releasing five other candidates, detained on charges of having ties to Kurdish rebels.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Interview on Greece-EU troubles
Here's a link to an article in today's Metro newspaper where I am quoted. I discuss the consequences of Greece's troubles for the EU and for Sweden. The article is in Swedish.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Report on Turkish civilian-military relations
Here is a short but useful summary of a forthcoming report on Turkish civilian-military relations commissioned by the Centre for European Security Studies. (Scroll down to page 5 of the newsletter.) The report is authored by Asst. Prof. Nil Şatana of Bilkent University. She argues that
The constitutional and practical changes in civilian control and parliamentary oversight indicate that the military’s involvement in politics has diminished since 2001. [...] The struggle for political survival and clientelism [long] stifled democratisation. In the absence of a strong engagement by local stakeholders, EU accession, supported by the Turkish military, has become a major drive for social and political transformation.
Today, Turkish society refuses to accept military trustee-ship. Civilians in politics are expected to control defence policy-making.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Rädslan för Turkiet - Metropol 93,8 | Sveriges Radio
From my eyebrow-raising performance on Swedish radio last week. They took three pictures after the interview and I thought we had a consensus on which picture NOT to use. Apparently not so...
Rädslan för Turkiet - Metropol 93,8 | Sveriges Radio
Saturday, June 18, 2011
The future for the Kurds after the elections
Kurdish MP Sebahat Tuncel has an op-ed in today's New York Times, in which she strongly criticizes the ruling AK Party for betraying the Kurds.
Tuncel argues that in order to avoid further violence and instability, Erdoğan now must
The first setback for the AKP was the triumphant and belligerent behavior of a group of formerly exiled PKK fighters upon their return to Turkey made possible by an amnesty that the AKP proclaimed as part of the opening. This outraged more Turks than just the nationalists.
And then the AKP (mistakenly, as it turned out) decided that the best way to gain a supermajority in the recent elections was to steal enough votes from the nationalist right-wing MH Party to put them under the 10% threshold. This failed, and the damage caused by the nationalist panderings by the AKP during the campaign have soured relations between the party and many Kurds, as Tuncel's op-ed indicates.
At the same time, Erdoğan does need opposition support for his plans to draft a new constitution, and some or all of that support could come from independent Kurdish MPs, and he has indicated that he is willing to adopt a consensual, inclusive, approach to rewriting the constitution. The elections are over and there is no longer any need for the kind of tough rhetoric that we saw in the lead-up to the elections.
Having said that, Kurdish leaders put forth at least three key demands, none of which will be an easy sell for the AKP. First, they want Kurdish children to be able to receive an education in their own language, not just be able to take Kurdish-language classes. This is highly controversial - when the issue was last up for debate in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (parliament), debate was not only emotional, punches were thrown.
Second, they want to get rid of the article in the Turkish constitution that defines any citizen of Turkey as a "Turk." As Bogazici political science Professor Kemal Kirisci explains, the original intent was for this word to indicate a civic identity, but Kurdish critics argue that it has been interpreted as a statement of ethnic identity that excludes Kurds. This is also a highly explosive issue since it goes to the core of Turkish identity, but it would seem to me that it is not insoluble. A clever rewording of this phrase could satisfy all parties.
Third, the issue of autonomy. Traditionally, many in the Turkish Kemalist establishment have virulently opposed any such suggestions, arguing that Kurdish activists demand autonomy but aim for sovereignty and secession. This has been a no-go as it has been seen as the first step to the division of the country, something unthinkable in Turkish mainstream politics. But, to my surprise, the leader of the social democratic party CHP, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, did come out more or less in favor of greater autonomy for local governments, including the Kurdish south-east, during the election campaign, probably in an attempt to court the Kurdish vote that was fleeing the AKP because of Erdoğan's turn to the right.
My tentative conclusion is therefore that if there is a will, there might be a way to resolve enough of these issues in a satisfactory way for Erdoğan to be able to enlist Kurdish support for a new constitution. But this is not an easy task, and I see no scenario where everyone is happy. Satisfying Kurdish demands will enrage nationalists. But ignoring them will enrage many Kurds as well as further damage Turkey's EU prospects, so it is the least likely alternative, in my opinion. Either way, things will get very interesting in the months ahead.
Arab Spring, Kurdish Summer - NYTimes.com
Tuncel argues that in order to avoid further violence and instability, Erdoğan now must
include Kurdish lawmakers in the process of drafting Turkey’s new Constitution, provide constitutional guarantees for the collective rights of the Kurdish people and accept our demand for autonomy that will allow for self-government and bring peace.And she warns that if the AKP insists on continuing
the policy of violent suppression that it has pursued to date... Turkey could enter a more intense period of conflict than ever before.She concludes the article with a plea:
The unjustified arrests and military operations must come to an end and Turkey’s Kurds, after decades of struggle, must be granted the right to learn and pray in our own language and exercise self-government in our cities and towns.These may seem like reasonable demands, but allowing self-government in the east would be a bitter pill for the Turkish nationalists. And I don't think (although I am speculating here) that Erdoğan is likely to try to reinvigorate the "Kurdish (or "democratic") opening," which has not just stalled but suffered several serious setbacks.
The first setback for the AKP was the triumphant and belligerent behavior of a group of formerly exiled PKK fighters upon their return to Turkey made possible by an amnesty that the AKP proclaimed as part of the opening. This outraged more Turks than just the nationalists.
And then the AKP (mistakenly, as it turned out) decided that the best way to gain a supermajority in the recent elections was to steal enough votes from the nationalist right-wing MH Party to put them under the 10% threshold. This failed, and the damage caused by the nationalist panderings by the AKP during the campaign have soured relations between the party and many Kurds, as Tuncel's op-ed indicates.
At the same time, Erdoğan does need opposition support for his plans to draft a new constitution, and some or all of that support could come from independent Kurdish MPs, and he has indicated that he is willing to adopt a consensual, inclusive, approach to rewriting the constitution. The elections are over and there is no longer any need for the kind of tough rhetoric that we saw in the lead-up to the elections.
Having said that, Kurdish leaders put forth at least three key demands, none of which will be an easy sell for the AKP. First, they want Kurdish children to be able to receive an education in their own language, not just be able to take Kurdish-language classes. This is highly controversial - when the issue was last up for debate in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (parliament), debate was not only emotional, punches were thrown.
Second, they want to get rid of the article in the Turkish constitution that defines any citizen of Turkey as a "Turk." As Bogazici political science Professor Kemal Kirisci explains, the original intent was for this word to indicate a civic identity, but Kurdish critics argue that it has been interpreted as a statement of ethnic identity that excludes Kurds. This is also a highly explosive issue since it goes to the core of Turkish identity, but it would seem to me that it is not insoluble. A clever rewording of this phrase could satisfy all parties.
Third, the issue of autonomy. Traditionally, many in the Turkish Kemalist establishment have virulently opposed any such suggestions, arguing that Kurdish activists demand autonomy but aim for sovereignty and secession. This has been a no-go as it has been seen as the first step to the division of the country, something unthinkable in Turkish mainstream politics. But, to my surprise, the leader of the social democratic party CHP, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, did come out more or less in favor of greater autonomy for local governments, including the Kurdish south-east, during the election campaign, probably in an attempt to court the Kurdish vote that was fleeing the AKP because of Erdoğan's turn to the right.
My tentative conclusion is therefore that if there is a will, there might be a way to resolve enough of these issues in a satisfactory way for Erdoğan to be able to enlist Kurdish support for a new constitution. But this is not an easy task, and I see no scenario where everyone is happy. Satisfying Kurdish demands will enrage nationalists. But ignoring them will enrage many Kurds as well as further damage Turkey's EU prospects, so it is the least likely alternative, in my opinion. Either way, things will get very interesting in the months ahead.
Arab Spring, Kurdish Summer - NYTimes.com
Friday, June 17, 2011
Armenian PM 'ready for Turkish ties' | BBC News
Just in from the BBC:
Armenia's prime minister says it is ready to establish diplomatic relations with Turkey without any pre-conditions.
Monday, June 13, 2011
My book out today!
My book (Turkey and the European Union: Christian and Secular Images of Islam. Palgrave Macmillan: NY) was scheduled to come out on June 21 but Palgrave appears to have been working overtime because I received my copies today, and my university library did so, too. So I guess I'm celebrating the book-release tonight by baking a batch of sourdough bread!
For my Swedish audience, the book is available to order from Bokus.
For my Swedish audience, the book is available to order from Bokus.
Link to my interview with Metropol youth radio (in Swedish)
Just came back from an interview with the youth radio show Metropol, where I talked about the Turkish elections and Turkey-EU relations. Here's a link but the interview is in Swedish:
Part 1: http://sverigesradio.se/sida/play.aspx?ljud=3180465&t=1415
Part 2: http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2842&play=3180567&playtype=S%C3%A4ndning
Part 1: http://sverigesradio.se/sida/play.aspx?ljud=3180465&t=1415
Part 2: http://sverigesradio.se/sida/default.aspx?programid=2842&play=3180567&playtype=S%C3%A4ndning
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)