Book talk, Stockholm University Dec 7

I'll be at Uppsala University tomorrow, Dec 1

For my readers in Sweden: I'll be giving an open lecture at Utrikespolitiska Föreningen (the Uppsala Association of International Affairs) at Uppsala University tomorrow evening. Here's a link to their program.

The talk will be held at 7:15 pm, in the University Building, Room IX (Universitetshuset) and it'll be in English.

The title of the talk is "Images of Turkey and Islam: Europe's Identity Crisis and Its Consequences" and it will mostly based on my book. But I also want to share some reflections of the potential effects of the current Eurozone crisis. (Although that is not the identity crisis mentioned in the title.) There will be an opportunity to chat over dinner at one of the "nations" after the talk.

How to deal with the Eurozone crisis (my 2 cents)

Here's a post on a matter only partially related to the topics I normally deal with, which I wrote for an other purpose. But it is an issue that is extremely urgent, so, with the caveat that I'm not an economist, here's my proposal for how to deal with the current Eurozone crisis (and also because I'm grading, so I don't have time to write something new right now):

Guangzhou, China. From over here, it is hard to avoid the feeling that European governments are conspiring to bring down the global economy. It’s an unfair allegation, no doubt: the IMF is doing its part, too.

But it doesn’t have to be this way. The chief obstacle now in the way of effective solutions to the European sovereign debt crisis is the failure to recognize that there are significant differences between the short, intermediate, and long-term problems. Because these problems are distinct from each other they require different solutions. Until our leaders realize this – and I mean national politicians as well as the leadership of organizations like the IMF – we will find it hard to break out of the vicious downward spiral that we are now in.

I want to suggest the outlines of an alternative proposal for how to break the cycle. In so doing, I will leave the longer-term issues (the lack of fiscal and political integration in the Eurozone and the destructive impact of unregulated financial markets on the real economy) aside and concentrate on the short and intermediate term problems we face.

The immediate problem is, of course, the acute crisis we are now facing: ballooning sovereign debts in several Eurozone countries, untenably high yields on Greek, Italian, and perhaps soon French bonds, and a lack of robust economic growth. Given the risk of contagion, broad exposure to bad debts, and the risk of a collapse of the Euro, this is a Europe-wide problem.

As for the intermediate crisis, its causes and severity varies. In Greece’s case, the current fiscal problems result from a combination of too high government expenditures, poor revenue collection, and general public sector inefficiencies. These are significant structural problems that require structural solutions in the intermediate to long term.

But, as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman and others have pointed out, in countries like the U.K. and Italy the causes are entirely different. In the U.K., much of the initial deficit was a natural result of the recession. And despite its debt problems, which in part have to do with having had to bail out its banks, Italy is actually expected to run a small surplus on its primary budget (excluding interest payments) this year. So these countries do not necessarily face long-to-intermediate term structural problems of the same kind and magnitude as Greece’s.

The great challenge, then, is how to deal with the intermediate-term problem – that is, the structural deficits in those countries (like Greece) that run them – without making the immediate crisis worse, and vice versa. And this is where the EU is failing spectacularly.

The Greek austerity measures that have been implemented – attempts to deal with the country’s intermediate, structural problems – so far only seem to make the immediate problems worse. In simple language: firing droves of public sector employees means less taxes to collect and greater burdens on the social services. Similar dynamics are at work in the UK, where the drastic cuts implemented by Cameron’s government just seem to have exacerbated the crisis. In both countries, growth has been stunted and deficits have soared.

It doesn’t take an economist to understand that what is needed to resolve the immediate crisis is instead something akin to old-fashioned Keynesian deficit spending in those countries that can afford it, coupled with raising ECB’s inflation target to relieve the real burden of debt those countries struggling to make their payments. At the very least, we must abandon the simultaneous public sector retrenchments that are currently being forced upon countries across the continent by the IMF and the EU. Such concerted belt-tightening in the midst of a severe recession only threatens to turn a recession into a depression.

But there remains the immediate problem of convincing the bond markets that this does not equate to simply putting off difficult intermediate-term deficit-cutting measures to the future. My suggestion is therefore to enact two-tiered solutions: Attempts to stimulate growth in the present need to be coupled with automatically triggered structural deficit-cutting reforms in the intermediate future when growth has returned.

The automated triggering of such time-limited reforms (in the countries with significant structural problems) needs to be ironclad, so as to impress the financial markets now. Like Odysseus, European politicians in countries that face structural problems need to tie themselves to the mast.

One example of how this could be achieved is deficit-cutting measures that are introduced once certain indicators show sustained and substantial growth, but which – once triggered – would require parliamentary unanimity in consecutive parliaments (with elections in-between) to be overturned. The exact nature of such mechanisms would have to vary according to the different national legal and economic contexts but the important thing is that they are convincing.

Such procedures raise concerns about democratic legitimacy. But governments are falling in Europe and “technocrats” installed in their place to do the bidding of the lenders. We already enshrine our most important political rights and legislative procedures in constitutions that are protected by such restrictions. It only makes sense to employ similar tools to protect our economies against the vagaries of the bond markets until the latter can be tamed. In the long run, we might consider enacting constitutionally required surplus targets averaged over business cycles, inspired by the success of the Swedish budget surplus target.

In order to get out of the hole we are now in, we need to stop digging. This entails recognizing that we are facing different short-term and intermediate-term problems and that we need to respond to them accordingly, with a two-tiered solution that doesn’t solve one problem by making the other one worse.

Traveling...

Random picture of SYSU campus courtesy of entrypark.com

I'm heading to China for a two-week stint as visiting lecturer at the Sun Yat-sen University School of Government, so blogging may be infrequent for the near future. In the meantime, check out some of these older posts:

• A video of an interview with Orhan Pamuk: http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2010/12/orhan-pamuk-turkey-is-europes-mirror.html
• A still telling graph: http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2010/12/turkeys-long-wait.html
• A video of Charlie Rose's interview with Stephen Kinzer: http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2011/01/i-am-having-trouble-finding-time-to.html
• Have Turkey-EU talks crashed? http://turkeublog.blogspot.com/2011/01/is-blame-game-afoot.html

Enjoy!

Free speech activist detained in Turkey | The Guardian

From The Guardian:

Ragıp Zarakolu, picture
courtesy of PEN.

The international literary community is demanding the immediate release of Turkish publisher and free speech activist Ragip Zarakolu, who has been arrested and imprisoned in Turkey under the country's anti-terrorism laws.

Zarakolu, director of Belge Publishing House, a member of Turkish PEN and chair of Turkey's Freedom to Publish Committee, is one of more than 40 activists who were detained in Istanbul on Friday, according to PEN and the International Publishers Association. The arrests are part of a crackdown against Kurdish political parties which has seen more than 1,800 supporters of the banned Koma Civakên Kurdistan party jailed since 2009. PEN said that if an appeal against the charges is unsuccessful, Zarakolu will be held through a trial process which is likely to last over a year.

So this should probably be seen in the context of the continued escalation of the Kurdish conflict.

Bianet has excerpts from a letter Zarakolu has written from prison. In it, he frames his arrest in terms of a larger attack on free-thinkers in Turkey that might support the Kurdish cause:

My arrest and the accusation of membership of an illegal organization are parts of a campaign aiming to intimidate all intellectuals and democrats of Turkey and particularly to deprive the Kurds of any support.

The Guardian on Facebook

PKK-Turkish Military Clashes (Video)

The escalation of violence between PKK and Turkish military forces in eastern Anatolia continues. Euronews reports (see video below) on a PKK attack on Turkish forces that killed 24 or 26 soldiers (I get different figures from different reports) and wounded almost as many.

As the report notes, Turkish forces pursued PKK fighters far into Iraqi territory - Bloomberg claims that they pushed as far at 4 kilometers into Iraq - and were supported by warplanes that bombed PKK positions.

The attack and retaliation follow a statement from the jailed PKK leader - Abdullah Öcalan or "Apo" - delivered yesterday by his brother, who had visited him on İmralı island. According to the statement, Öcalan argues that "At this stage, the key is in the hands of state authorities, not ours. Negotiations will continue and everything could change in the coming process if they open the door" (from Today's Zaman). 

The TurkEU Blog now over 10 000 views

I wasn't really paying attention so I missed the fact that The TurkEU Blog passed 10 000 views a few days ago! Thanks for visiting and come back often!

Screenshot from 10/16/2011

Armenia row hits Turkish-French relations | EurActiv

French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

A Franco-Turkish row is erupting over Sarkozy's demand during a visit to Armenia on October 7 that Turkey recognize the Armenian Genocide before the end of his term as President. Turkey's EU minister Egemen Bağış reacted strongly, suggesting that Sarkozy should concentrate on the Euro crisis rather than play historian.

The EurActiv article has links to other sources on the issue.

Armenia row hits Turkish-French relations | EurActiv

For Europe, a Bridge Too Far to Turkey | NYTimes.com

I never blogged about this NYT article by John Vinocur, though I spotted it a little over a week ago. Perhaps because it rather annoyed me. In fact, I am disturbed by the very opening sentence:

There was always, at least for its critics, something preposterous about the idea of Turkey entering the European Union.

It meant, in their eyes, Europe literally extending its frontiers to the borders of Iran, Syria and Iraq, and the E.U. adding to its membership a predominantly Muslim country whose population would soon give it the biggest number of seats in the European Parliament. 

Sure, Vinocur is just conveying what Turkey's critics have been saying, but he doesn't seem very eager to examine these assumptions critically.

And with that skeptical opening, Turkey's "turning away" from the EU becomes quite a natural return to an equilibrium:

Turkey’s new stance gives Europe (with Germany and France opposing full Turkish membership) a respectable alibi and respite from an issue it cannot easily solve. But in the process, the door closes on the goal of integrating Turkey into a European-led geopolitical and economic order.

Here, Vinocur does sound vaguely critical, but then, apparently, the blame can be placed rather easily in one corner:

it is the Turks who are forcing the E.U. to turn away from its candidacy.

Given a) that the idea of Turkish EU membership was apparently always preposterous, b) that this is now prospect is now apparently dead, and c) that it is apparently only Turkey's fault that this is so, Vinocur continues:

“The majority of Europe welcomes the moment, thinking, ‘Great, the Turkey thing is off the table,”’ said a Brussels official whose country backs Turkish entry. He added, “We think Turkey is worth it, and that they’re a real risk if they sail off into the distance.”

 All the same, a new distance has unspoken pluses.

 The apocalyptic notion of Europe being overrun by Turkish Muslims, brandished by right-wing populists like Geert Wilders of the Netherlands — Turkey’s rapidly growing population is approaching 80 million — is deflated as a hysteria-making political argument.

OK, that sounds good. The right-wing populist hysteria is proven wrong. But wait a minute - why? Well, as far as I can tell from the piece, not primarily because they were wrong about their analysis of what would happen if Turkey joined the EU. Their apocalyptic visions won't come true because Turkey won't join the EU! Vinocur is (perhaps unwittingly) pretty much embracing the right-wing argument, or at the very least not challenging it.

Admittedly, I am not really doing Vinocur justice, so you should read the piece for yourselves. It has more going for it that I am letting on and there's good reason to be critical of Erdoğan's administration in many respects. If nothing else, the article is worth reading because it is indicative of the emerging consensus around an increasingly pessimistic view of Turkey's EU membership prospects and around the "going East" narrative.

I also understand that it is hard to write sophisticated and nuanced analyses under the kind of time-pressure that correspondents face (but the same goes for bloggers who have full time jobs so I guess that would excuse my one-sided reading of the piece).

Regardless, I can't help but be annoyed. Some historical perspective on the issue would serve Vinocur well.

For Europe, a Bridge Too Far to Turkey - NYTimes.com

US Islamophobia is Alive and Thriving (Video)

Talking Point Memo (TPM) has some Islamophobic "highlights" from a speech Saturday by a man they describe as a US "Conservative shock jock" (i.e. controversial talk radio host): Bryan Fischer.

At the 2011 Values Voter Summit in Washington DC, Fischer rattled off such statements as "The greatest long-term threat to our security and liberty is not radical Islam, but Islam itself" and was frequently interrupted by applause and loud audience cheers.

Other memorable observations included his assessment that:

Every single Mosque in America is a potential recruiting or training cell for Islamic terror.

This sounds just a tad exaggerated, until you realize why he believes that this is so:

I believe it's important that we have a president who understands that Islam is not a religion of peace, but a religion of war and violence and death.

What does one say? If this is not hate- and fear mongering, what is? Here is a man who has been given a podium and pulpit at the center of US politics, who essentially tells Americans to fear all Muslims, especially those who are pious. This is crossing the line. Unfortunately, it is also quite revealing.

Some might dismiss this and say: who cares what some crazy joe schmoe says at some random event? But Fischer is not only a popular radio host, but also (according to Wikipedia) the Director of Issues Analysis for an organization called the American Family Association (AFA). And the Values Voter Summit is far from a minor event. The scheduled speaker list is a veritable who's who of Conservative (Republican) politics: Rick Perry, John Boehner, Eric Cantor, Rick Santorum etc.

The speaker who went immediately before Fischer? Only the GOP Presidential front-runner, Mitt Romney.

Conservative Shock Jock Reels Off Islamophobia's Greatest Hits | TPMMuckraker